Neither of these, or many of the other things we are hearing from those convinced that the new code is generating too many doubles is correct. However, one of the things that we have learned in the course of those lobby chats is that many people do not have a good grasp of probabilities or "randomness." For example one person told us that our claim that doubles should occur every 1 in 6 rolls was "subjective." Another person e-mailed Mike and told him that their understanding was that if the dice were correct than if you got a roll of 12, for example, you should not expect to see 12 again for 18 rolls. ![]() Of course, all we have done is analyze the data before and after the change (actually Mike has done all of the after change analysis I have just been helping collect data), SHG has made the changes based on seeing the problem. Mike and I have taken quite a beating in the room lobbies, particularly the Cove, over our "ruining" the play at SHG. ![]() For the rest of you, you now know as much as the story as I do. Now if you are thinking that is a lot of crap to wade through I would say if you are not willing to spend the time to understand that then shut up about the dice, you don’t have a leg to stand on. A good introduction to the issue of statistically proving randomness can be found here. Mike is continuing to look for other anomalies such as runs in the data, but runs can occur in truly random data sets. A lot of people are complaining about the number of doubles, but the data speaks for itself. This data shows that doubles are now as you would expect. The data we are collecting on the new dice is available here. Mike is a programmer and knows the people at SHG – he does not work for them, nor do I – so he let them know that there was an issue and shared our data with them.Īs of this writing the corrected dice code is in the Cove, Doubling Cube, and Lagoon rooms on SHG. Mike’s data for the old dice can be found at. If you want to read the whole thread that kicked off the whole thing you can find it here read=49530#Responses. Doubles should occur 16.67% of the time, but on SHG they were only coming up about 9.2% of the time. I doubted that could be true, so I analyzed my own matches. Mike Petch, who does a lot of gnubg development, is doing the analysis at this point, I am helping collect data.Ī few weeks ago in the forum there was a comment from Neil Robins that his XG gammons dice data from SHG showed less than the expected number of doubles. If you see me (BigWill) kibitzing a lot of games on SHG it is because I am collecting data to continue a study of the dice at SHG. This post does not really related to the subject of the blog, but i am putting it here so people that ask me about it on SHG can have a reference for what is going on. The follow a couple of recent developments on this check out the following threads on the BGONLINE.ORG forum:įor those of you that don’t know Neilkaz is Neil Kazaross, the all times points leader on the American Backgammon Tour and #5 on the 2007 Giants of Backgammon List. So please, attach you mat files to an email and send them to UPDATE I would love to see all of these match logs, if it is happening with anywhere near the frequency some people claim there should be hundreds of these kinds of matches. However, as far as I can tell no one complaining about this has produced even one match log, not less the hundreds that should be out their, to show that this is happening. I keep hearing complaints of “one-sided dice” “6 doubles in a row” “20 doubles in a game” and players losing “time and time and time again” to multiple doubles at the end of the game. ![]() 28 produced the correct amount of doubles, or at least something very close to it. 35 it is clear that all the versions from. While data is still being collecting for version. ![]() There is a group that continues to complain about the new dice code at SHG. So as you can see the frequency of doubles, distribution of doubles, and number of doubles in a row are all within what would be expected. All of the following are all from rooms using the corrected dice (rooms marked with yellow dice), mostly Doubling Cube and Gammon Zone I don’t have the programming ability Mike does, so I am not going to attempt to analyze the matches I collected for him, but since I have switched to Extreme Gammon for my match analysis I can use its dice analysis feature. Mike Petch collected over a million rolls using the new dice and tells me that everything was well within statistical expectations, however I have not see his final publication.
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